Premier League · AI model prediction · Updated July 2026
Our AI model predicts Arsenal to win, giving Arsenal a
62.8% probability. Most likely scoreline: 2–1,
with a 59.3% chance of over 2.5 goals.
Win probability
Arsenal 62.8%Draw 20.3%Newcastle 16.9%
Model breakdown
Metric
Value
Predicted score
2–1
Expected goals (xG)
2.09 – 0.98
Over 2.5 goals
59.3%
Under 2.5 goals
40.7%
Team rating (Elo)
1666 vs 1474
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Arsenal vs Newcastle?
Our AI model favours Arsenal to win — Arsenal 62.8%, draw 20.3%, Newcastle 16.9%. Arsenal is the model's pick at 62.8%.
What is the predicted score for Arsenal vs Newcastle?
The model's most likely scoreline is 2–1 (Arsenal 2, Newcastle 1).
Will Arsenal vs Newcastle have over 2.5 goals?
The model estimates a 59.3% chance of over 2.5 goals and 40.7% under.
How reliable is this prediction?
It is a statistical model trained on tens of thousands of matches, with its full accuracy track record published transparently on soccerpredictor.fly.dev.
Predictions are model-generated statistical estimates for analysis and entertainment, not betting advice. Model accuracy is published transparently on the main site.