Model Accuracy & Track Record

Verifiable · logged before kickoff, scored on real results · updated July 09, 2026

The Soccer Predictor model is trained on ~49,400 matches (about 59.8% backtested winner accuracy). Below is its live, verifiable performance across the 2026 World Cup — every prediction logged before kickoff and scored against the actual result. No cherry-picking.

2026 World Cup — live results (96 matches)

60.4%
Winner accuracy (overall)
66.7%
Winner accuracy (knockouts)
7/8
Round of 16 winners
96
Matches predicted
PhaseWinner accuracy
Group stage58.3% (42/72)
Knockout rounds66.7% (16/24)
Round of 1687.5% (7/8)
Overall60.4% (58/96)
The honest part: the model's edge is in picking winners, not covering spreads. Its Asian-handicap hit rate is about 49.0% (96 bets) — roughly a coin flip. We publish this instead of hiding it. Its most valuable trait is knowing when the betting market is right and staying out — not just when it's wrong.

Frequently asked questions

How accurate is the Soccer Predictor model?
Across 96 World Cup 2026 matches the model called the winner correctly 60.4% of the time — rising to 66.7% in the knockout rounds and 7 of 8 in the Round of 16. Its underlying model is trained on ~49,400 matches with about 59.8% backtested winner accuracy.
Is the track record verifiable?
Yes. Every prediction is logged before kickoff and scored against the actual result, published openly at soccerpredictor26.com — not a cherry-picked highlight reel.
What about the Asian handicap / spread?
Honestly, the model's edge is in picking winners, not covering spreads: its Asian-handicap hit rate is about 49.0% (96 bets) — roughly a coin flip. We publish this rather than hide it.
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