Premier League · AI model prediction · Updated July 2026
Our AI model predicts Arsenal to win, giving Arsenal a
80.9% probability. Most likely scoreline: 3–1,
with a 68.5% chance of over 2.5 goals.
Win probability
Arsenal 80.9%Draw 12.4%Burnley 6.6%
Model breakdown
Metric
Value
Predicted score
3–1
Expected goals (xG)
2.82 – 0.71
Over 2.5 goals
68.5%
Under 2.5 goals
31.5%
Team rating (Elo)
1666 vs 1288
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Arsenal vs Burnley?
Our AI model favours Arsenal to win — Arsenal 80.9%, draw 12.4%, Burnley 6.6%. Arsenal is the model's pick at 80.9%.
What is the predicted score for Arsenal vs Burnley?
The model's most likely scoreline is 3–1 (Arsenal 3, Burnley 1).
Will Arsenal vs Burnley have over 2.5 goals?
The model estimates a 68.5% chance of over 2.5 goals and 31.5% under.
How reliable is this prediction?
It is a statistical model trained on tens of thousands of matches, with its full accuracy track record published transparently on soccerpredictor.fly.dev.
Predictions are model-generated statistical estimates for analysis and entertainment, not betting advice. Model accuracy is published transparently on the main site.