Premier League · AI model prediction · Updated July 2026
Our AI model predicts Newcastle to win, giving Newcastle a
42.2% probability. Most likely scoreline: 2–1,
with a 58.6% chance of over 2.5 goals.
Win probability
Newcastle 42.2%Draw 24.0%Chelsea 33.8%
Model breakdown
Metric
Value
Predicted score
2–1
Expected goals (xG)
1.62 – 1.42
Over 2.5 goals
58.6%
Under 2.5 goals
41.4%
Team rating (Elo)
1474 vs 1485
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Newcastle vs Chelsea?
Our AI model favours Newcastle to win — Newcastle 42.2%, draw 24.0%, Chelsea 33.8%. Newcastle is the model's pick at 42.2%.
What is the predicted score for Newcastle vs Chelsea?
The model's most likely scoreline is 2–1 (Newcastle 2, Chelsea 1).
Will Newcastle vs Chelsea have over 2.5 goals?
The model estimates a 58.6% chance of over 2.5 goals and 41.4% under.
How reliable is this prediction?
It is a statistical model trained on tens of thousands of matches, with its full accuracy track record published transparently on soccerpredictor.fly.dev.
Predictions are model-generated statistical estimates for analysis and entertainment, not betting advice. Model accuracy is published transparently on the main site.