Premier League · AI model prediction · Updated July 2026
Our AI model predicts Arsenal to win, giving Arsenal a
50.4% probability. Most likely scoreline: 1–2,
with a 55.9% chance of over 2.5 goals.
Win probability
Newcastle 26.0%Draw 23.6%Arsenal 50.4%
Model breakdown
Metric
Value
Predicted score
1–2
Expected goals (xG)
1.18 – 1.74
Over 2.5 goals
55.9%
Under 2.5 goals
44.1%
Team rating (Elo)
1474 vs 1666
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Newcastle vs Arsenal?
Our AI model favours Arsenal to win — Newcastle 26.0%, draw 23.6%, Arsenal 50.4%. Arsenal is the model's pick at 50.4%.
What is the predicted score for Newcastle vs Arsenal?
The model's most likely scoreline is 1–2 (Newcastle 1, Arsenal 2).
Will Newcastle vs Arsenal have over 2.5 goals?
The model estimates a 55.9% chance of over 2.5 goals and 44.1% under.
How reliable is this prediction?
It is a statistical model trained on tens of thousands of matches, with its full accuracy track record published transparently on soccerpredictor.fly.dev.
Predictions are model-generated statistical estimates for analysis and entertainment, not betting advice. Model accuracy is published transparently on the main site.