Premier League · AI model prediction · Updated July 2026
Our AI model predicts Man City to win, giving Man City a
68.2% probability. Most likely scoreline: 1–2,
with a 63.1% chance of over 2.5 goals.
Win probability
Burnley 13.7%Draw 18.1%Man City 68.2%
Model breakdown
Metric
Value
Predicted score
1–2
Expected goals (xG)
0.94 – 2.31
Over 2.5 goals
63.1%
Under 2.5 goals
36.9%
Team rating (Elo)
1288 vs 1642
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Burnley vs Man City?
Our AI model favours Man City to win — Burnley 13.7%, draw 18.1%, Man City 68.2%. Man City is the model's pick at 68.2%.
What is the predicted score for Burnley vs Man City?
The model's most likely scoreline is 1–2 (Burnley 1, Man City 2).
Will Burnley vs Man City have over 2.5 goals?
The model estimates a 63.1% chance of over 2.5 goals and 36.9% under.
How reliable is this prediction?
It is a statistical model trained on tens of thousands of matches, with its full accuracy track record published transparently on soccerpredictor.fly.dev.
Predictions are model-generated statistical estimates for analysis and entertainment, not betting advice. Model accuracy is published transparently on the main site.